One of Them is Probably Wrong. A Liquidity Desk Analysis | May 2026 Crude oil is up nearly 80% this year. The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high. And the yield on the 30-year US government bond (the benchmark for the true long-term cost of borrowing in
CENTRAL THESIS April CPI came in at 3.80%, beating consensus. Energy inflation jumped to 17.90%, and Core CPI accelerated to 0.40% MoM, the strongest reading in over a year. This is only the first partial reflection of the Hormuz shock in official data. The May CPI, published
How Regulation Rewrites the Interest Rate Introduction There is an old saying, attributed to different people across different eras, but true regardless of its origin: the road to hell is paved with good intentions. In the early 1950s, only 5% of working Americans needed a government license to practice their
May 2026 | Liquidity Desk Narrative Bridge Over the past few weeks, we tracked the fuel that powers markets. Net Fed Liquidity, ECB balance sheets, the Bank of Japan, the PBOC. We saw the direction. Now comes the logical next question: if money is moving, where is it going? Sector rotation
Global Liquidity Snapshot | May 2026 | W1 Four central banks. One trap. The wound at Hormuz. On April 29, 2026, Jerome Powell held his final press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve. The following day, Christine Lagarde stepped before the cameras after the ECB's rate decision. Both said
Survivorship Bias and the Illusion of 100x Returns Liquidity Desk | Education Series Introduction Picture this. Late 2020. The pandemic has changed the world, interest rates are at zero, and money is flowing freely. Social media accounts appear with promises like "this stock will do 100x." A new investor,
The Lessons of the 1970s and What Is Different Today Historical Parallels | April 2026 Tihomir Bachvarov | Liquidity Desk Introduction Picture three scenes from the last few weeks. The first is in the port of Jebel Ali, Dubai. Fifteen LNG tankers from Qatar sit at anchor west of the Strait of
EDUCATION SERIES The amplification mechanisms that turn central bank liquidity into market moves Most retail investors watch the Federal Reserve and ask a simple question: how much is the Fed adding or removing? That number matters enormously. It is the foundation on which everything else is built. But it is
How Big Tech is carrying hundreds of billions in AI chips at prices the market stopped believing years ago Liquidity Desk | Equity Deep Dive | April 2026 There is a number that does not appear on any earnings call slide deck. It lives quietly in the footnotes of annual reports, buried
On the impossibility of forecasting and the art of navigating uncertainty Tihomir Bachvarov | Liquidity Desk Before asking what something is worth, ask what world you are living in Every DCF analysis begins with one innocent assumption: that we know what the appropriate discount rate is. We take the risk-free rate,
Sector: Technology Hardware / AI Infrastructure Market Cap: Micro-cap (<$100M) April 2026 About This Analysis | Monthly Equity Deep Dive Every month, Liquidity Desk publishes a deep dive into a single equity as part of our content calendar. Our approach is deliberate: we look for companies that are structurally positioned at
He Just Never Said It Out Loud. How $373 Billion in Cash Was the Loudest Signal Nobody Wanted to Hear Toward the end of last year, when Berkshire's cash position started making headlines, I found myself going back through Buffett's shareholder letters. I've read