The pressure test
When engineers want to test a pipe, they do not wait to see where it leaks. They raise the pressure and watch which joint gives way first.
September was exactly that kind of test for credit markets. Three central banks tightened almost at once, oil jumped, and long US government bonds reached levels the market had not seen in almost two decades.
Most joints held. One is already leaking, and another is standing at the edge of what is acceptable.
Which ones they are, why Europe looks calmest during its biggest rise in yields in months, and which number will decide October: the full analysis is for subscribers.
